Geoff Ramsey, one of the most successful pioneers of the internet, has a terrific analysis of the ‘state of the media’ and the rising power of the ‘long tail’ at iMedia Connection. He starts off his article with a wonderful quote I’ve never seen before.

iMedia Connection: Famous for Fifteen People.

In 1991, a European musician by the name of Momus spun a radical vision for the future of music: “The future will be a lot of musical shrapnel… The old unifying stars like Madonna and Michael Jackson will be seen as the last of their kind, global monoliths, relics of an age of monopoly capitalism which has been smashed to smithereens.”

Putting his own spin on Andy Warhol’s “fifteen minutes of fame” adage, Momus suggested a different dynamic. In the future, he wrote, “Everyone will be famous for fifteen people.”

Momus’s vision of a fragmented music world is probably only half right. I doubt that mass media stars like U2 or Britney Spears will cease to exist. And yet, Momus was prescient, predicting (nearly 15 years ago!) the democratization and fragmentation of music. The internet — coupled with the MP3 devices and digital music payment models — can create markets for even the most obscure bands.

Ramsey goes on to say that five trends are converging to change the marketplace:

1. Digital technologies are giving consumers more control.
2. Broadband is allowing more and richer content to be accessed freely in all sorts of locations, including the home.
3. Search is helping people sort through the avalanche of new content and find what they want.
4. The number of people buying online has reached critical mass.
5. Merchants are now figuring out ways to take the ‘friction’ out of the purchasing system, so more low-volume items are available with less distribution costs.

Now we have a better idea of what trends to keep an eye on if we’re going after the Long Tail.