Category: Living in trouble
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TFS: In choosing advisers, avoid certainty
In his chapter on the illusion of validity, Daniel Kahneman discredits all efforts to take the uncertainty out of the future. In fact, he finds the more confident an adviser becomes, the more likely they will miss the mark. This false confidence is often based on all the research and analysis the adviser has performed.…
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TFS: Extreme events breed extreme predictions
As marketers, sometimes the best thing to do is hold our course and avoid reacting to extreme events. When something exciting happens we immediately start looking for causes and planning for new directions. But a single off-the-chart event does not improve our ability to make predictions. We should become observers at that point. For me,…
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TFS: Beware the lucky dog
In making decisions, we avoid variance. We want to bet on a sure thing. And yet, our desire to win often overcomes us. We pick a stock or a job candidate or a restaurant because it was recently successful. We pay less attention than we should to its track record. We think we have this…
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TFS: How Availability Bias can make us act squirrely
Such a big part of being a good entrepreneur and/or being a good marketer is about objectively evaluating risk. Most of the public discourse about availability cascades focuses on the use of public funds, but private funds can be used imprudently as well. The correct management of risk is to recognize both the probability of…
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TFS: Recognizing Anchors
An anchor is a piece of irrelevant data which influences decisions. Research has shown that once a person has been exposed to an anchor, avoiding the influence of that anchor is nearly impossible. Although sellers often use asking-price anchors to manipulate people, they are pretty much trapped if the buyer demands one. Check out the…
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I’m not telling it right
When I think about all the things I'd like to accomplish, I remember that the first thing I have to do is change my story. I just dug out my copy of Change Anything again, and the first step is to write yourself a good story, one that makes such good sense that you can't help…
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TFS: Why we have to keep questioning what we ‘understand’
We are really saved from ourselves by our curiosity. If you think you understand something, it's time to learn more about it. Because the mind is an associative machine, and it takes whatever you've learned so far and constructs a story that make sense. Whether or not you have really dug deep and learned what…
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TFS: How to avoid second-rate decisions
As I was reading Thinking Fast and Slow, my mind spun back to many times I've made bad decisions. In my profession, marketing, every big decision must deal with both complexity and uncertainty. And yet we're make so many decisions based on a hunch, a gut feeling, or a reflex. Our decisions are unfairly influenced…
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Taking a few months to practice Thinking Slow
I like to think. Seriously, it's one of my 'Stengthsfinder' strengths–which means I'm supposed to use it and develop it. But that's not why I'm launching this project, a multi-month discussion of Daniel Kahneman's Thinking Fast and Slow (to be known here as TFS). For me, TFS's biggest revelation was why the marketing profession is…
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Name it, claim it, change it
In her book 11 Rules for Creating Value in the #Social Era, Nilofer Merchant has a rule "Learn. Unlearn. (Repeat.)" She writes about the necessity on constantly adapting to the evolving business scene. One of the big challenges is 'unlearning.' To start, you have to recognize something is wrong, which may require getting advice from…
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