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TFS: Better a simple calculation than an educated guess
Experts can become very, very good at reading the immediate situation and handling it well. But their intuition for handling long-range problems seldom has the opportunity to develop. However, their confidence is high. Daniel Kahneman says "They know they are skilled but they don't necessarily know the boundaries of their skill." The halo effect (transferring…
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Loyalty is more than marketing
Loyalty marketing has become big business, but loyalty remains a basic human behavior. You can't design a good loyalty program for your customers unless you know how to act with loyalty. FrogDog: The Benefits of Loyalty, 2013-Jun-20, by Leslie Farnsworth Sticking with one person or company will get you better results, extra consideration for needs…
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The overlooked art of the great reply
As a communication medium, email is trickier than most. We can appear evil by accident. We can expect to be ignored. Our message is often lost. Sending email (like sex) is something worth doing well. If we slam a message with no consideration for the human being at the other end, we'll get the contempt…
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TFS: In choosing advisers, avoid certainty
In his chapter on the illusion of validity, Daniel Kahneman discredits all efforts to take the uncertainty out of the future. In fact, he finds the more confident an adviser becomes, the more likely they will miss the mark. This false confidence is often based on all the research and analysis the adviser has performed.…
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Persuading with words, relying on images
Words alone are seldom persuasive, and they can definitely get in the way. I think verbally and too many words come to mind and I get too attached to them. Perhaps one of the best ways to reduce our words is to think of an image and then use very specific words that paint that…
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Working post-industrially
I love living in the post-industrial society. Everybody can make up their own service job. One of these days I'm going to have cards made up that say "Data Cleaning Lady." That's one job that I can do comfortably that other people either can't or won't do.
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TFS: You can’t reap what you didn’t sow–but no guarantees
In "The Illusion of Understanding," Kahneman observes, "A very generous estimate of the correlation between the success of the firm and the quality of its CEO might be as high as .30, … [This] implies you would find the stronger CEO leading the stronger firm in about 60% of the pairs–an improvement of a mere…
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TFS: Extreme events breed extreme predictions
As marketers, sometimes the best thing to do is hold our course and avoid reacting to extreme events. When something exciting happens we immediately start looking for causes and planning for new directions. But a single off-the-chart event does not improve our ability to make predictions. We should become observers at that point. For me,…
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An idea that spurs creativity: give your customers their data
What if every company would share back your data as a normal part of customer service? I work for a company that would find it very challenging, not because we wouldn't like to, but because it would be expensive to create the system to provide it. When I was collecting art, I really wanted my…
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TFS: In direct marketing, don’t forget to leave some behind
You would think that as much as I embrace the principles of direct marketing, that I would remember to create control groups in order to test my efforts. My time is so much more valuable than my money. So every effort I make must be carefully scrutinized for its value. If I don't split the…
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