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Reckless blogging and whining
This morning I'm blogging without having anything to say. That's because I've been so busy that I haven't had time to collect ideas. I've been trying to hold onto my routines, but searching doesn't always lead to finding. I've been re-reading Peter Bregman's 18 Minutes: Find your Focus…, which is better than that kitschy title…
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TFS: How Availability Bias can make us act squirrely
Such a big part of being a good entrepreneur and/or being a good marketer is about objectively evaluating risk. Most of the public discourse about availability cascades focuses on the use of public funds, but private funds can be used imprudently as well. The correct management of risk is to recognize both the probability of…
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On Listening to the Right Things
I'm a big fan of listening, but make sure you're listening to the right things. Often, the most important things go unsaid. We can over-react to customer feedback, "always oiling the squeaky wheels," as Larry Freed says below. In my current job, the benefit my company provides is installing systems, and customers constantly complain that…
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TFS: Getting better forecasts by crushing availability bias
Daniel Kahneman says the biggest hurdle to eliminating "availability bias" is that it requires a tireseome amount of effort. You have to second-guess yourself all the time. But if you make the effort, you may improve your quality of life. Don't avoid that short cut just because your car had a flat there yesterday. Don't…
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Can big data lead to more equitable hiring, better bosses?
As someone who's suffered job discrimination and terrible management, the news that researchers are studying which factors actually lead to better job performance is great news. Certain jobs may be off-limits to me because the data shows I won't be good at them, and as long as the science is sound, I'm okay with it.…
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TFS: Recognizing Anchors
An anchor is a piece of irrelevant data which influences decisions. Research has shown that once a person has been exposed to an anchor, avoiding the influence of that anchor is nearly impossible. Although sellers often use asking-price anchors to manipulate people, they are pretty much trapped if the buyer demands one. Check out the…
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TFS: How to avoid bad samples
One of the most common errors in my profession is making a decision based on a small sample, a too-small sample. So how do we know if the sample is too small? We can make the decision rationally, like a scientist, using System 2 thinking. Or we can go with our gut, which says no…
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Think what your loyalty provides
While I'm not fond of Starbucks coffee, I do admire the Starbucks brand. (Overheard while walking the Freedom Trail in Boston last week: "I have to walk all this way with you and there won't even be a Starbucks.") Increasing evidence shows that it's not the products that we acquire but the experiences we acquire…
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I’m not telling it right
When I think about all the things I'd like to accomplish, I remember that the first thing I have to do is change my story. I just dug out my copy of Change Anything again, and the first step is to write yourself a good story, one that makes such good sense that you can't help…
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Email responsibly… using text as much as possible
The rise of smart phones really knocked the email newsletter on its ear. We had all gotten used to having elaborate graphics, which arose from a real desire for beauty, at least on my part. But now the graphics in an email need to be completely justified. In a way, it has made my life…
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