Marketing researchers, including those from Initiative Media, are struggling with how to use observations from chat rooms as a way to predict the popularity of launches for products and shows. It’s not always as easy as it seems. For instance, competition between products, as well as competition among the influencers to be witty and hip, adds other currents to the flow.

NY Times: The Ad Industry Turns to the Web to Predict Hits by Bill Carter

…Initiative Media began looking at Internet chatter for the first time last year, adding a new element to the mix of methods of predicting early awareness of shows. Last year, when "Lost" defied all expectations by demonstrating a clatter of attention on the Web, Initiative began questioning whether the passive examination they were doing of the chat sites was simply not a proper way to measure advance audience interest in television shows, said Stacey Lynn Koerner, the executive vice president of global research for the agency, a unit of the Interpublic Group of Companies.

"I looked at the data for the show and it was No. 1 in terms of positive buzz," Ms. Koerner said. "I said, ‘Ah, shoot, this thing doesn’t work.’ " But the consistency of the information forced Initiative to re-evaluate, to the point where just before the television season began, Ms. Koerner said, she began gingerly suggesting to advertising clients that they might want to take an extra look at "Lost."